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Lucius
Posted on Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 10:41 am:   

It's The Year of Living Dangerously in Honduras today. Maduro has been the most corrupt President the country has ever had. In the Primary election last spring the Red Party (liberals) had a choice between a good candidate, and Mel Zelaya, another party hack. They chose the hack. The Blue Party (Nacionalists) chose Porforio Lobo, who flaunted the Constitution by refusing to give up his position as President of Congress to run for President of the Republic. The Courts caved in. The big issue is gangs. The Blues ran calling for gunning down gangsters in teh streets. The Reds ran on a platform of buying them off. In September it was VERY tense in San Pedro. The election was Sunday. By 11 PM the Court of Elections announced with 10% of the vote counted the Red Party was up by 6 points and their lead was growing. Since then, SILENCE. The Court is controlled by the Blues. Yesterday the Blues in Congress declared themselves in permanent session. Maduro announced that he would remian President until the "crisis" is resolved. The Nacionalists took to the streets. The Liberals have called on Maduro to resign and leave the country. If the Reds go into the streets, they claim they won't be unarmed.


If the Election Court declares a Blue victory nobody will believe them. At this point, if the Election Court doesn't declare a Red victory in the next 24 hours, democracy is dead. By tomorrow I figure the Army has to throw its support behind one side or the other, or step in to prevent civil war. Meanwhile the storms in October still have the North Coast virtually cut off. You can't get beyond El Progresso without a plane. Doesn't bode well.
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Lucius
Posted on Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 12:31 pm:   

Army is in the streets everywhere in the country. Maduro is calling for calm. Election results will be announced at 3PM today. That's the latest word listening to Honduran radio on the 'net.
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Lucius
Posted on Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 01:29 pm:   

This is pretty interesting. Pepe Lobo, the Blue cnadidate is now at the US Ambassador's residence, where he has requested that the US oversee a recount if the Reds win. Pretty funny, since the Blues have held all the power and may have taken a stab at a steal. If the Liberals are indeed declared the winners, Lobo and Maduro may find reason to be Miami bound this evening.

Call Katherine Harris.
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Dave G.
Posted on Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 02:28 pm:   

Maybe we can work a deal; the Hondourans can supervise a recount of Ohio, and we'll supervise a recount of their election...
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Lucius
Posted on Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 02:59 pm:   

Okay, so now the Elections Court is reported that the Blue Party is leading the Presidential race. The Liberals are telling their supporters to demonstrate PEACEFULLY and not to shoot up the streets, at least yet. Whereas in the last election 100% of the votes were counted and certified within 24 hours, this time around 15% have been certified after 48 hours.
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StephenB
Posted on Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 05:46 pm:   

That ain't right. But if both parties are corrupt anyway, what can they do?
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Lucius
Posted on Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 05:46 pm:   

This is all probably going to play out in its weird way through the night. At 3PM when the Elections Court announced a partial count -- 8 Departments, the Blue had the lead. At that point Lobo left the US Ambassador's home, headed for his ranch in Olancho. At 6PM they announced further results, now 25% of the estimated total. The Red are now up by 3%. On Sunday the exit polls showed the Red party winning by about 6%, which was confirmed by early returns Sunday night. That's what all of this is about. Suddenly there were no more returns all through Tuesday and into Wednesday. The Nacionalists rattled their swords and made noises about not just giving the government to the Liberals, and a crisis was born. My guess is that at some point during the night, or early tomorrow there will be a winner. If the Liberals win, we'll see if they withdraw their demand that Maduro immediately resign and leave.
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Lucius
Posted on Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 07:09 pm:   

The Blue Party used a Gringo political consultant to run the Lobo campaign. They literally ran on a platform of gunning down gang members in the street. This evening the campaign manager, Mark Klugmann has suddenly left the country. It appears that means a Liberal victory is in the offing and Klugmann reckoned he'd be the fall guy for the Blue loss.

Stay tuned...
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Nathan Ballingrud
Posted on Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 08:50 pm:   

While reading your posts, I found myself assuming that Honduras has a two-party system, and that the Liberals were a leftist organization. I should have known better. I just checked a story on the BBC (which has Zelaya with 51 percent of the votes) which claims that both candidates are right-wingers. Do you feel that Zelaya offers much more hope for the country than Lobo, beyond his apparent dismissal of the scorched earth policy regarding the gangs?
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Lucius
Posted on Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 09:23 pm:   

Nah, they're all corrupt, twisted. There is no hope for Honduras; but Zelaya's election would pose a problem for the military. I doubt Zelaya has that many votes anywhere other than the BBC. Glad you're following this little Central American soap opera. Names are always intereting in CA politics. The gov of Guatemala was controlled by the Party of Organized Violence.
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Nathan Ballingrud
Posted on Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 09:55 pm:   

Good god.
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Lucius
Posted on Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 10:51 pm:   

Thoughts after the latest bulletin:


I think there's a real possibility of violence depending on how things play out over the next couple days. I think that's why the Army has hit the streets. To try to prevent violence. If the Nacionals step aside gracefully things will calm down. If they're belligerent fucks like they were on Monday some people are going to get killed. The gangbangers can use this an excuse to make the Blues look bad. And the gangbangers love to shoot up buses.
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Lucius
Posted on Wednesday, November 30, 2005 - 06:59 am:   

Maduro went to the US Embassy during the night and assured them that the Nacionialists would respect the election results. Porforio Lobo said that he would respect the will of the people and urged his supporters not to protest the results. The Mayor of San Pedro was announced, and the Liberals won there, so they probably swept the city, which would nail down the Presidency. One editorial suggests that Nacionalists within the Elections Court contempted stealing the election and then got cold feet or feared the Army wouldn't back their play.

A civil war averted. Politics as usual down south of the border. We now return you to yer usual stations...
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Robert
Posted on Wednesday, November 30, 2005 - 07:17 am:   

That's good news, about civil war being averted. I suspect that editorial is probably right about thinking about stealing the election.
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Lucius
Posted on Wednesday, November 30, 2005 - 07:24 am:   

Oh yeah! They were gonna steal it.

Now if only they could get a decent government, one that showed some concern for the people...but hey, we don't even have that.

Just goes to show how close we are to becoming part of the third world...

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